An AI agent's actions cause a publicly attributed outage or data loss at a Fortune 500 company or major cloud provider
The index says: a toss-up (50%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
Agent-caused deletions are now routine at startups (PocketOS, DataTalks.Club) and coding agents leaked files from 300+ organizations including a Fortune 500 firm; Amazon disputes that its Kiro agent caused a December outage. Attribution, not occurrence, is the bottleneck.
What would move it
Post-incident reviews naming an AI agent; cloud status pages; banks' moves to read-only agent access.