Warning Shots

Can AI do your job?

Not predictions: graded, dated evidence of what AI has actually done in each job, task by task, and what has happened to the jobs themselves. Each task is graded 'deployed' only when a named organisation reports AI doing it in real work at scale, 'demonstrated' when it works in tests, benchmarks or pilots, and 'not yet' when we found no credible evidence AI does it reliably. For job losses we separate what a company said in its own words ('company says AI') from what reporters or analysts attributed to AI ('reported as AI') and from research ('study'); employment and outlook figures come from the BLS 2025-35 projections.

10,000+ a monthPantheon Macroeconomics estimates AI is now costing the US more than 10,000 jobs a month, net, with accounting, advertising, office administration and legal services slowly shrinking while data-center construction hires. This is an economists' estimate, not a count of announced cuts.Fortune, Oct 2026
19%Employment of 22-25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed occupations is 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers (ADP payroll data through June 2026). The authors find no economy-wide displacement, and experienced workers show no comparable gap.Stanford Digital Economy Lab, Aug 2026
No clear evidenceYale's Budget Lab says its tracking 'does not provide clear evidence of labor market disruption associated with AI', and the occupational mix is not yet shifting in ways that line up with AI.Yale Budget Lab, Sep 2026
Just under halfIn OpenAI's GDPval test of 1,320 tasks from 44 occupations, the best model's work was rated as good as or better than industry experts' in just under half of tasks. These were one-shot tasks with clear prompts, which OpenAI itself flags as a limitation.OpenAI GDPval, Sep 2025
Zero payoffApollo's chief economist Torsten Slok found flat profit margins and revenue per worker across the S&P 500 minus its seven largest tech firms, with no sign yet that AI is raising productivity there.TechCrunch, Oct 2026
4 of 9In an AP tally of nine recent cuts, four companies tied them to AI in their own words (Barclays ~5,000, Block 4,000+, Coinbase ~14%, Standard Chartered 15%+ of back office by 2030). For others, such as Meta and Microsoft, the AI link came from reporters, not the company.AP via Boston 25, Oct 2026
60,000Microsoft offered voluntary buyouts to about 60,000 staff. Coverage frames it as an AI-era overhaul, but the memo excerpts published do not mention AI.TechCrunch, Oct 2026

Pick your job

  • Paralegals and legal assistants
    AI is already used across law firms for document review, drafting and summarising, and it can speed up research, but it still invents case law often enough that a person has to check every citation.
  • Accountants, auditors and bookkeepers
    Routine data entry and transaction processing are already heavily automated, and BLS expects bookkeeping-clerk jobs to fall 6% while accountant jobs grow 5%.
  • Customer service representatives
    AI already answers a large share of routine chats and calls at some large companies, and at least one CEO says it let him cut thousands of support jobs.
  • Software developers
    AI now writes a large share of new code at some big companies, and coding is the single biggest use of AI chat tools.
  • Interpreters and translators
    Machine translation is good enough that companies use it for routine content and freelance translators report lost work and income.
  • Writers, copywriters and editors
    AI can draft routine and formulaic copy and is heavily used for writing and proofreading, and freelance markets saw fewer writing jobs after ChatGPT.
  • Graphic designers
    Companies already use image generators to produce marketing images faster and cheaper, and freelance demand for image work dropped after these tools launched.
  • Radiologists
    AI is widely deployed in radiology as a second reader and triage tool, and large trials show it can find more breast cancers while cutting reading workload by about 44%.
  • Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers
    Driverless trucks are now hauling paying freight on a few highway lanes in Texas and the Southwest, but the leading operator expects about 200 trucks by the end of 2026 against more than 2.2 million truck-driving jobs.
  • Financial analysts
    AI tools are in daily use at big banks for finding information and summarising, and the best agents answer about two-thirds of entry-level analyst questions with partial credit.
  • High school teachers
    Most US teachers now use AI to prepare lessons and materials, and it saves weekly users close to six hours a week.
  • Registered nurses
    Hospitals are deploying AI to draft nursing documentation and place routine patient-education calls, and algorithms already help set staffing levels.
  • Pharmacists
    Robots already fill a large share of routine prescriptions at some chains, which frees pharmacists for vaccines and clinical work rather than cutting them.
  • Data entry keyers
    This is one of the occupations BLS expects to shrink fastest, by about a quarter by 2035.
  • Market research analysts
    Market research ranks near the top of Microsoft's list of jobs where AI is most applicable, and about half of researchers already use AI regularly.
  • Insurance claims adjusters, examiners and investigators
    Claims is one of the few jobs where BLS itself projects AI-driven decline.
  • Real estate brokers and sales agents
    About two-thirds of Realtors use AI, mostly to write listing copy and marketing, and a few startups now sell AI-led home buying with licensed agents in the background.
  • Cashiers and retail salespersons
    Self-checkout and online shopping, not chatbots, are what BLS expects to shrink cashier jobs, by about 200,000 by 2035.
  • News analysts, reporters and journalists
    Newsrooms have automated formulaic stories for a decade and most staff at some outlets now use AI daily, and a few publishers have tied layoffs partly to AI.
  • Human resources specialists and recruiters
    HR is one of the first corporate functions where a big company has said plainly that AI replaced staff: IBM cut a few hundred HR roles after its HR chatbot began resolving most routine questions.

Spot an error or something out of date? Tell us; corrections are made and logged. Written with AI assistance from public sources; every fact checked and approved by Colin Balfe. General information, not legal, medical or financial advice.