Will AI replace claims adjusters? What the evidence shows

Reviewed by Colin Balfe on Oct 27, 2026 · Updated Oct 27, 2026 · Graded, dated evidence, not predictions

The short answer

Claims is one of the few jobs where BLS itself projects AI-driven decline. Insurers already use AI to estimate car damage from photos and settle simple claims without a person, and European insurers have begun cutting claims and call-centre jobs with AI cited as a reason. Complex and disputed claims still need people, and one AI-assisted denial system faces a class action.

The job today

389,700 claims adjusters, appraisers, examiners and investigators (2025), including 376,100 adjusters, examiners and investigatorspeople employed in the USBLS Occupational Outlook Handbook

Outlook-6% (-21,800 jobs), 2025-35; adjusters, examiners and investigators -5%, auto damage appraisers -9%. BLS: 'Technology is expected to automate some of the tasks that these workers currently perform', e.g. software that evaluates photos of damage, and 'data processing speed and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities will continue to increase'.BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook

Task by task: what AI can actually do

In real use means deployed at scale; shown in tests or pilots means demonstrated but not yet routine; not yet means we found no credible evidence it does this reliably.

Task	Status	Evidence
Estimating car damage from photos	In real use	GEICO signed Tractable to assess vehicle damage from photos across the 28 million vehicles it insures, replacing a physical appraisal; Tokio Marine, Covéa and others also use it. (eMarketer, May 2021)
Settling simple claims end to end	In real use	Lemonade's CEO said its claims bot handles '40-something-percent' of claims with no need for any human intervention (company figure). (PYMNTS, Feb 2023)
Handling claims calls and routine enquiries	In real use	Allianz Partners, where about 14,000 of 22,000 staff handle enquiries and claims by phone, is cutting 1,500-1,800 jobs across Europe; Bloomberg reports the unit cited AI as a reason. (Bloomberg via Digital Insurance, Jul 2026)
Judging complex or disputed claims	Not yet	A federal judge let a class action proceed alleging UnitedHealth's nH Predict tool overrode doctors on post-acute care; plaintiffs claim nine in ten appealed denials were reversed. UnitedHealth says the tool does not make coverage decisions. (Healthcare Finance News, Feb 2025)

Jobs evidence so far

Labelled by who says AI was the reason: the company itself, reporters, or a study.

2026-07-08 Allianz Partners to cut 1,500-1,800 jobs across Europe in customer service and claims; Bloomberg reports the unit cited AI as a reason, though no verbatim company quote was published (company says AI, per Bloomberg) (Bloomberg via Digital Insurance, Jul 2026)
2026-05-20 Broker Acrisure cuts 2,250 jobs (about 11%); CEO letter: 'Advances in technology, AI, and digital platforms are fundamentally changing how businesses operate.' Claims processing is among back-office work analysts say is hit first (company says AI) (Insurance Business, Jun 2026)
2026-02 Munich Re's Ergo to cut about 1,000 German positions in phone service and claims handling by 2030, partly due to AI, with no forced redundancies (company says AI, in part) (ClickClaims, Feb 2026)
2026-08 BLS projection factors: adjusters' share 'decreases as computer software and artificial intelligence (AI) will make claims adjustment processes more efficient' (study) (BLS Employment Projections)

What to do

Move toward complex claimsLarge-loss, liability, injury and fraud work involves negotiation and judgment that current tools do not handle alone.
Get field-ready for catastrophesBLS notes that floods, fires and other disasters drive demand for property adjusters on the ground.
Learn to audit AI decisionsLawsuits over automated denials mean insurers need people who can check and explain what the software recommended.
Watch phone-based claims rolesThe first AI-linked cuts in Europe hit call-centre claims handling. If that is your job, plan a move now.

Questions people ask

Will AI replace claims adjusters?

Partly. BLS projects a 6% decline (-21,800 jobs) for 2025-35 and explicitly cites software and AI. Simple claims are already automated at some insurers; complex ones are not.

Are insurers cutting jobs because of AI?

Yes, some say so. Acrisure's CEO cited AI when cutting 2,250 jobs, Ergo cited AI in part for 1,000 cuts, and Bloomberg reports Allianz Partners cited AI for up to 1,800 cuts.

Which claims tasks are most exposed?

Photo-based auto damage estimates, simple property and renters claims, and routine phone enquiries.

Is AI fair in claims decisions?

That is contested. A class action over UnitedHealth's nH Predict tool is proceeding; the insurer says the tool does not make coverage decisions.

How we grade

Each task is graded 'deployed' only when a named organisation reports AI doing it in real work at scale, 'demonstrated' when it works in tests, benchmarks or pilots, and 'not yet' when we found no credible evidence AI does it reliably. For job losses we separate what a company said in its own words ('company says AI') from what reporters or analysts attributed to AI ('reported as AI') and from research ('study'); employment and outlook figures come from the BLS 2025-35 projections.

Sources

Spot an error or something out of date? Tell us; corrections are made and logged. Written with AI assistance from public sources; every fact checked and approved by Colin Balfe. General information, not legal, medical or financial advice.