An AI-agent-driven cyberattack causes $100M+ in losses or disrupts critical infrastructure
The index says: unlikely (35%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
AI already ran a ransomware attack end to end, and one person's AI-agent campaign was linked to breaches at Korean banks. Industry leaders told Axios they expect a major incident within 6–12 months, most likely a cyberattack.
What would move it
Attribution language in CISA, NCSC or Microsoft reports; ransomware groups adopting agent frameworks.