Will anyone say how the patient given AI-designed viruses did, by Nov 14?
The index says: unlikely (20%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
The company has declined to describe the patient's clinical course, outcome, hospital or physicians, and calls its single-patient report unable to establish safety or efficacy; compassionate-use cases usually reach journals months later. But a good result would be a strong reason to speak sooner.
What would move it
A Radical Numerics update or preprint; a hospital press release; a journal case report.
Proof it was called in advance
- Published Nov 1, 2026.
- Fingerprint of the exact wording (SHA-256):
896c54a51b5a82783763e549b9ebb2ffc4e135392d12fff081a1f70ca3ab08d1. Anyone can hash the question below and get the same string; any edit would change it.