Will a court approve the rules for selling Character.AI, with Disney's $700,000 break-up fee intact, by Oct 31?
The index says: likely (60%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
31 states and DC filed a 27-page objection on Oct 23 (Docket 66) asking the court to deny or cut the 3.5% fee, lower the $21.7 million overbid floor and give bidders 21 more days. Break-up fees for stalking-horse bidders are routinely approved in Delaware, but a coordinated objection from most state attorneys general in a case about harm to minors is not routine, and courts often trim timelines rather than fees.
What would move it
The Oct 30 10 a.m. ET hearing docket; a revised bidding-procedures order; Disney amending its terms before the hearing.