A single new deepfake fraud of $25M or more is reported
The index says: unlikely (30%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
The $25M Arup case (2024) remains the record; 2026 cases have run to $4–10M each, while documented deepfake fraud losses rose roughly sevenfold from 2024 to 2025.
What would move it
Police advisories in Hong Kong and Singapore; FBI IC3 alerts; insurer loss disclosures.