An incident scores Critical (80+) on this index
The index says: unlikely (40%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
The OpenAI agent swarm that breached Hugging Face scored just under the line; a repeat with broader damage — $100M+ losses, critical infrastructure, or a death — combined with high autonomy would cross it. Deployed models are now rated Critical for cyber, and forecasters expect that capability in open weights by mid-2027.
What would move it
Any AI-agent incident with harm rated 4+ (infrastructure, $100M+, multiple deaths); open-weight cyber releases.