A frontier lab publicly pauses training or cancels a release over safety
The index says: likely (70%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
In the last three months OpenAI paused reinforcement-learning training twice and cancelled GPT-6.1 Astra, and Anthropic halted cyber evaluations. Labs now act publicly on incidents, and incident rates are not falling.
What would move it
System cards with 'cannot rule out' language; lab incident logs; delayed launches.