Korean police or regulators publicly name the operator behind the ARTEX bank intrusions by Nov 30
The index says: unlikely (25%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
Microsoft has tied the ConnectWise attacks to the China-aligned group Storm-0940 using ARTEX agents, but the Korean cases remain unattributed in public, nobody has been arrested, and another lender was hit after the sector-wide alert. Official attribution in Korea has historically taken months.
What would move it
Korea's Financial Supervisory Service and National Police Agency statements; a Microsoft or Mandiant report naming the Korean operator.