A deepfake of a candidate or election official goes viral around the Nov 3 midterms and draws an official or platform takedown response
The index says: very likely (85%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
220 AI-generated political ads worth $137M had run by Oct 11, Texas has already seen a criminal complaint, and the FBI and CISA warned officials on Oct 16. The final 72 hours before a vote are the historical peak for synthetic media.
What would move it
State election officials' rapid-response statements; platform labeling actions; complaints under the 31 state deepfake laws.