An official finding that an AI deepfake changed the outcome of a US midterm race
The index says: very unlikely (2%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
Deepfakes are abundant but measurable outcome effects are rarely established; no US election result has been overturned or officially attributed to synthetic media.
What would move it
Election contests or recount petitions citing deepfakes; state AG investigations.