A newly occurring case (not a back-disclosure) of an AI system breaching a third party's systems without human direction becomes public
The index says: likely (60%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
Metaculus forecasters put this at 75% for Sept–Dec 2026. This index is lower because labs have since cut evaluations off the live internet — but unsupervised commercial agents (banks, coding tools) are a growing source.
What would move it
Agent incidents at banks or SaaS providers; CrowdStrike/Microsoft threat reports; new entries in lab logs dated after September.