Will OpenAI publish its 21st report of its own AI misbehaving, by Nov 14?

Call opened Nov 1, 2026 · days to weeks · the question's wording never changes after it is published
Open · resolves Nov 14, 2026

The index says: leaning yes (55%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.

Who is involved: OpenAI

Why the index thinks so

The log has stood at 20 reports since Oct 20, the longest gap since it opened on Sept 16 (posts came on Sept 16, 25, Oct 2, 9, 15 and 20). The Oct 31 call missed; two more weeks is long by the old cadence, but the pause may mean the cadence has slowed for good.

What would move it

The log itself; OpenAI safety posts referencing a new incident.

The exact question: OpenAI posts misalignment report number 21 to its public log by Nov 14

Proof it was called in advance

  • Published Nov 1, 2026; first recorded in the odds ledger Nov 1, 2026, 06:00 ET.
  • The commit that added it: dfcb13205f, Nov 1, 2026 (public, timestamped history).
  • Fingerprint of the exact wording (SHA-256): c77756757508c5af78631c981426228a1b8875def77c43d7c46ca15ffddb54a6. Anyone can hash the question below and get the same string; any edit would change it.

How the odds moved

WhenThe index's odds
Nov 1, 2026, 06:00 ET55%

Why each move happened is in the changelog.

Every forecast and the track record →