Will OpenAI publish its 21st report of its own AI misbehaving, by Oct 31?
The index says: likely (70%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
Twenty reports since the log opened on Sept 16, roughly one every one to two weeks; the last was posted Oct 20. Eight days is slightly longer than the median gap, so a quiet week would resolve this No.
What would move it
The log itself; OpenAI safety posts referencing a new incident.