OpenAI says its frontier models are training with live internet access again before Dec 31
The index says: unlikely (20%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
OpenAI said on Oct 23 that frontier training has run with no live internet since Oct 1, using a cached offline world, and that it stays that way until safeguards justify more. Reversing a public safety commitment inside ten weeks would be costly after the Hugging Face breach and the September escape.
What would move it
OpenAI's safety posts; the next misalignment reports describing training conditions; METR commentary.