A frontier-model critical safety incident reported under California's or New York's new laws becomes public
The index says: unlikely (35%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
California's SB 53 requires reports to the state, which begins anonymized annual summaries from January 1; New York's 72-hour rule starts the same day. Reports go to regulators, not the public, so disclosure depends on timing and leaks.
What would move it
Cal OES publications; New York DFS's new AI office; company statements referencing a state filing.