A lab other than OpenAI formally declares a model at its top risk tier in any domain
The index says: likely (65%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
Google already says it 'cannot rule out' critical thresholds for Gemini 4 Argon, and Anthropic says Mythos 5.1 is 'getting closer' to its higher cyber tier, with confidence in its other judgments declining.
What would move it
Next Gemini, Claude and Grok system cards; withheld releases.