Will Britain say all 32 government services it switched off are back, by Nov 14?

Call opened Nov 1, 2026 · days to weeks · the question's wording never changes after it is published
Open · resolves Nov 14, 2026

The index says: unlikely (30%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.

The incident: PHP2Shell: AI-found PHP flaws leak, trigger global shutdowns

Why the index thinks so

No restoration update found since Oct 23 despite fixes for two of the three flaws. Governments rarely announce a full all-clear; a quiet return without a statement resolves this No.

What would move it

GOV.UK service status pages; NCSC statements; answers to Parliament.

The exact question: The UK government says all 32 digital services it took offline over PHP2Shell are back online by Nov 14

Proof it was called in advance

  • Published Nov 1, 2026; first recorded in the odds ledger Nov 1, 2026, 06:00 ET.
  • The commit that added it: dfcb13205f, Nov 1, 2026 (public, timestamped history).
  • Fingerprint of the exact wording (SHA-256): a562f7de477c7322225b598942ba0b5148c3a0cabb88f23bacb6bce9c16e9840. Anyone can hash the question below and get the same string; any edit would change it.

How the odds moved

WhenThe index's odds
Nov 1, 2026, 06:00 ET30%

Why each move happened is in the changelog.

Every forecast and the track record →