Will Britain say all 32 government services it switched off are back, by Oct 31?
The index says: a toss-up (50%). Graded on that date, right or wrong, in public.
Why the index thinks so
The services went dark as a precaution on Oct 22, the patch exists, and restoration is a testing problem rather than a technical one. Against: no restoration update had been published by the evening of Oct 23, and a third PHP bug waits for the next regular release, which may keep cautious teams offline longer.
What would move it
GOV.UK service status pages; NCSC statements; the Cabinet Office's briefing to Parliament.