Resolution Day, Monday, Nov 30: 2 AI forecasts graded in public

Each of these was published days or weeks ago as a dated yes-or-no question with the index's odds. On Monday, Nov 30 each is graded in public, and the misses get the same space as the hits. This page updates at every refresh (5:17 AM, 12:17 PM and 6:17 PM ET).

The score so far

2 calls resolve on this date. None graded yet.

METR publishes an independent review of at least one lab's test-environment fixes (Anthropic, Google, Meta or the UK AISI) by Nov 30

Open The index says unlikely (30%). Graded when the evidence lands, right or wrong.

What would settle it: metr.org publications; lab posts citing a completed external review.

Korean police or regulators publicly name the operator behind the ARTEX bank intrusions by Nov 30

Open The index says unlikely (25%). Graded when the evidence lands, right or wrong.

What would settle it: Korea's Financial Supervisory Service and National Police Agency statements; a Microsoft or Mandiant report naming the Korean operator.

How a call is graded: the question's exact wording, fixed when it was published, decides it; a call at exactly 50% is graded but not counted. Every call page shows the fingerprint of its wording and the commit that added it. The method · every forecast and the track record.