The Charts · Nov 1, 2026Our 5 graded calls: 2 right, 1 wrong, 2 coin flips 2 right, 1 wrong and 2 coin flips so far. Small numbers: this is a running count, not a track record yet.
Our 5 graded calls: 2 right, 1 wrong, 2 coin flips Four of our calls came due on Oct 31. Each dot is a call we have graded, placed at the odds we published before its date. Right means we leaned the way it went; a 50% call counts neither way. Misses stay on the board. Right Wrong Toss-up: we said 50%, counts neither way Sure no Coin flip Sure yes Oct 31 Will America's cyber agency formally warn that the flaw under… Will America's cyber agency formally warn that the flaw under most websites is being used in attacks, by Oct 31? We said 50%; answer: YES. TOSS-UP. 50% TOSS-UP · YES Oct 31 Will a court approve the rules for selling Character.AI, with… Will a court approve the rules for selling Character.AI, with Disney's $700,000 break-up fee intact, by Oct 31? We said 60%; answer: YES. RIGHT. 60% RIGHT · YES Oct 31 Will America's cyber agency order federal agencies to act on the… Will America's cyber agency order federal agencies to act on the flaw under most websites, by Oct 31? We said 15%; answer: NO. RIGHT. 15% RIGHT · NO Oct 31 Will OpenAI publish its 21st report of its own AI misbehaving,… Will OpenAI publish its 21st report of its own AI misbehaving, by Oct 31? We said 70%; answer: NO. WRONG. 70% WRONG · NO Oct 31 Will Britain say all 32 government services it switched off are… Will Britain say all 32 government services it switched off are back, by Oct 31? We said 50%; answer: NO. TOSS-UP. 50% TOSS-UP · NO Source: Warning Shots call sheet (forecast/), odds as published before each date. As of Nov 1, 2026. W: WARNING SHOTS · warningshots.ai Our 5 graded calls: 2 right, 1 wrong, 2 coin flips Four of our calls came due on Oct 31. Each dot is a call we have graded, placed at the odds we published before its date. Right means we leaned the way it went; a 50% call counts neither way. Misses stay on the board. Right Wrong Toss-up: we said 50%, counts neither way Sure no Coin flip Sure yes Oct 31 · Will America's cyber agency formally warn that the flaw… Will America's cyber agency formally warn that the flaw under most websites is being used in attacks, by Oct 31? We said 50%; answer: YES. TOSS-UP. 50% TOSS-UP · YES Oct 31 · Will a court approve the rules for selling Character.AI,… Will a court approve the rules for selling Character.AI, with Disney's $700,000 break-up fee intact, by Oct 31? We said 60%; answer: YES. RIGHT. 60% RIGHT · YES Oct 31 · Will America's cyber agency order federal agencies to act on… Will America's cyber agency order federal agencies to act on the flaw under most websites, by Oct 31? We said 15%; answer: NO. RIGHT. 15% RIGHT · NO Oct 31 · Will OpenAI publish its 21st report of its own AI… Will OpenAI publish its 21st report of its own AI misbehaving, by Oct 31? We said 70%; answer: NO. WRONG. 70% WRONG · NO Oct 31 · Will Britain say all 32 government services it switched off… Will Britain say all 32 government services it switched off are back, by Oct 31? We said 50%; answer: NO. TOSS-UP. 50% TOSS-UP · NO Source: Warning Shots call sheet (forecast/), odds as published before each date. As of Nov 1, 2026. W: WARNING SHOTS · warningshots.ai Download: Wide image (16:9) · Phone and Instagram (4:5) · Vector (SVG)
Why it matters Four of our calls came due on Oct 31, and we missed one: we said OpenAI would likely post its 21st report of its own AI misbehaving, and it did not. Forecasts are only worth something if they are written down before the answer is known and graded after, misses included.
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The data behind this chart (5 rows) Due Question Our odds Answer Verdict 2026-10-31 Will America's cyber agency formally warn that the flaw under most websites is being used in attacks, by Oct 31? 50% YES TOSS-UP 2026-10-31 Will a court approve the rules for selling Character.AI, with Disney's $700,000 break-up fee intact, by Oct 31? 60% YES RIGHT 2026-10-31 Will America's cyber agency order federal agencies to act on the flaw under most websites, by Oct 31? 15% NO RIGHT 2026-10-31 Will OpenAI publish its 21st report of its own AI misbehaving, by Oct 31? 70% NO WRONG 2026-10-31 Will Britain say all 32 government services it switched off are back, by Oct 31? 50% NO TOSS-UP
Source: Warning Shots call sheet (forecast/), odds as published before each date. As of Nov 1, 2026. Every mark is computed from the data at build time, never typed in.
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Spot an error or something out of date? Tell us ; corrections are made and logged. Written with AI assistance from public sources; checked against those sources before publishing. General information, not legal, medical or financial advice.
