How the scores workfive factors, one formula
Each incident is rated on five factors by this index, then scored by a fixed formula.
| Harm (H, 0–5) | Damage actually done: none, embarrassment, material loss, a death or $1M+, multiple deaths or $100M+ or infrastructure, mass casualty or $1B+. |
| Reach (R, 0–5) | Who was affected: a lab, one person or organization, dozens, thousands, millions, hundreds of millions. |
| Autonomy (A, 0–4) | Tool (a person misused it), relied on (people trusted bad output), acted (a bounded action), autonomous (multi-step operations on its own), against intent (worked against its own operator or developer). |
| Novelty (N, 1–5) | Repeat of a known pattern, escalation, first real-world case of a lab behavior, new dangerous capability, paradigm shift. |
| Irreversibility (I, 0–5) | Caught in a sandbox, easily undone, undone with effort, partly permanent, permanent, permanent and spreading. |
Harm score = 100 × (0.5·H/5 + 0.25·R/5 + 0.25·I/5)
Signal score = 100 × (0.6·A/4 + 0.4·N/5)
Severity = 0.55 × Harm + 0.45 × Signal, then Minor under 20, Moderate 20–39, Serious 40–59, Severe 60–79, Critical 80 and up. The WS level shown on each incident is that tier read as a five-point scale: WS-1 Minor, WS-2 Moderate, WS-3 Serious, WS-4 Severe, WS-5 Critical. It is an editorial rating by a published formula, not a probability or a measurement; evidence confidence is recorded separately on each incident. Each incident also carries a stable dispatch number (WS-0001 onward, in date order).
Harm is weighted more because it already happened. Signal is weighted heavily because it predicts what happens next. A lab finding can reach Serious on signal alone, but only real-world damage can make an incident Severe or Critical.
This is a curated index of significant, well-sourced incidents, not a census; the AI Incident Database and the OECD monitor count far more. Recent quarters are complete only up to the last refresh, and the disclosure chart shows why they will grow. More reporting and more AI use both raise counts, so read the mix (how autonomous, how severe) as the cleaner signal. Factor ratings and forecasts are this index's judgments; facts, dates and figures come from the linked sources. Where a lawsuit is pending, the summary reports allegations, not findings.
How the Wire is builtlinks, not copies
The Wire is a board of links to other people's reporting: security press, wire services, newspapers, agencies and the labs themselves. Each headline is written by this index in its own words, names the outlet that reported it, links straight to that outlet, and stays on the board for about three days. Every story is checked against the original page before it is added; stories that cannot be opened are left off. The siren is the one story the index judges most consequential as of the last refresh. Nothing is copied from the outlets beyond a one-line summary.
