We expect yes on 7 of the 12 calls due by Nov 30

7 of our 12 calls due by Nov 30 lean yes. 1 moved this refresh on new evidence.

We expect yes on 7 of the 12 calls due by Nov 30Every open call due in the next five weeks, placed by how likely we think it is. A coin flip sits in themiddle. Each one gets graded on its date, hits and misses alike.We expect yesWe expect no or a coin flipMoved this refreshNoCoin flipYesOct 31 Will OpenAI publish its 21st report of its own AI misbehaving, by…Will OpenAI publish its 21st report of its own AI misbehaving, by Oct 31?: likelylikelyOct 31 Will a court approve the rules for selling Character.AI, with…Will a court approve the rules for selling Character.AI, with Disney's $700,000 break-up fee intact, by Oct 31?: likelylikelyOct 31 Will Britain say all 32 government services it switched off are…Will Britain say all 32 government services it switched off are back, by Oct 31?: either wayeither wayOct 31 Will America's cyber agency order federal agencies to act on the…Will America's cyber agency order federal agencies to act on the flaw under most websites, by Oct 31?: very unlikelyvery unlikelyNov 7 Will a real organization confirm it was broken into through the flaw…Will a real organization confirm it was broken into through the flaw under most websites by Nov 7?: likely (moved this refresh)likely · movedNov 21 PHP ships a release that fixes CVE-2026-115560 (the third bug) by…PHP ships a release that fixes CVE-2026-115560 (the third bug) by Nov 21: likelylikelyNov 22 Another AI lab or government tester discloses a new case of a model…Another AI lab or government tester discloses a new case of a model taking unsanctioned real-world actions: very likelyvery likelyNov 22 A deepfake of a candidate or election official goes viral around the…A deepfake of a candidate or election official goes viral around the Nov 3 midterms and draws an official or platform takedown response: very likelyvery likelyNov 22 A new wrongful-death lawsuit is filed against an AI chatbot makerA new wrongful-death lawsuit is filed against an AI chatbot maker: very likelyvery likelyNov 22 An official finding that an AI deepfake changed the outcome of a US…An official finding that an AI deepfake changed the outcome of a US midterm race: very unlikelyvery unlikelyNov 30 METR publishes an independent review of at least one lab's…METR publishes an independent review of at least one lab's test-environment fixes (Anthropic, Google, Meta or the UK AISI) by Nov 30: unlikelyunlikelyNov 30 Korean police or regulators publicly name the operator behind the…Korean police or regulators publicly name the operator behind the ARTEX bank intrusions by Nov 30: unlikelyunlikelySource: Warning Shots call sheet (forecast/), odds set before each date; misses stay on the record. As of Oct 29, 2026.W: WARNING SHOTS · warningshots.ai
We expect yes on 7 of the12 calls due by Nov 30Every open call due in the next five weeks, placed by how likelywe think it is. A coin flip sits in the middle. Each one getsgraded on its date, hits and misses alike.We expect yesWe expect no or a coin flipMoved this refreshNoCoin flipYesOct 31 · Will OpenAI publish its 21st report of its own AI…Will OpenAI publish its 21st report of its own AI misbehaving, by Oct 31?: likelylikelyOct 31 · Will a court approve the rules for selling Character.AI,…Will a court approve the rules for selling Character.AI, with Disney's $700,000 break-up fee intact, by Oct 31?: likelylikelyOct 31 · Will Britain say all 32 government services it switched off…Will Britain say all 32 government services it switched off are back, by Oct 31?: either wayeither wayOct 31 · Will America's cyber agency order federal agencies to act on…Will America's cyber agency order federal agencies to act on the flaw under most websites, by Oct 31?: very unlikelyvery unlikelyNov 7 · Will a real organization confirm it was broken into through…Will a real organization confirm it was broken into through the flaw under most websites by Nov 7?: likely (moved this refresh)likely · movedNov 21 · PHP ships a release that fixes CVE-2026-115560 (the third…PHP ships a release that fixes CVE-2026-115560 (the third bug) by Nov 21: likelylikelyNov 22 · Another AI lab or government tester discloses a new case of…Another AI lab or government tester discloses a new case of a model taking unsanctioned real-world actions: very likelyvery likelyNov 22 · A deepfake of a candidate or election official goes viral…A deepfake of a candidate or election official goes viral around the Nov 3 midterms and draws an official or platform takedown response: very likelyvery likelyNov 22 · A new wrongful-death lawsuit is filed against an AI chatbot…A new wrongful-death lawsuit is filed against an AI chatbot maker: very likelyvery likelyNov 22 · An official finding that an AI deepfake changed the outcome…An official finding that an AI deepfake changed the outcome of a US midterm race: very unlikelyvery unlikelyNov 30 · METR publishes an independent review of at least one lab's…METR publishes an independent review of at least one lab's test-environment fixes (Anthropic, Google, Meta or the UK AISI) by Nov 30: unlikelyunlikelyNov 30 · Korean police or regulators publicly name the operator…Korean police or regulators publicly name the operator behind the ARTEX bank intrusions by Nov 30: unlikelyunlikelySource: Warning Shots call sheet (forecast/), odds set before each date; misses stay on the record. As of Oct 29, 2026.W: WARNING SHOTS · warningshots.ai

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The data behind this chart (12 rows)
DueQuestionOur oddsMoved this refresh
2026-10-31Will OpenAI publish its 21st report of its own AI misbehaving, by Oct 31?70%
2026-10-31Will a court approve the rules for selling Character.AI, with Disney's $700,000 break-up fee intact, by Oct 31?60%
2026-10-31Will Britain say all 32 government services it switched off are back, by Oct 31?50%
2026-10-31Will America's cyber agency order federal agencies to act on the flaw under most websites, by Oct 31?15%
2026-11-07Will a real organization confirm it was broken into through the flaw under most websites by Nov 7?70%65% to 70%
2026-11-21PHP ships a release that fixes CVE-2026-115560 (the third bug) by Nov 2180%
2026-11-22Another AI lab or government tester discloses a new case of a model taking unsanctioned real-world actions90%
2026-11-22A deepfake of a candidate or election official goes viral around the Nov 3 midterms and draws an official or platform takedown response85%
2026-11-22A new wrongful-death lawsuit is filed against an AI chatbot maker85%
2026-11-22An official finding that an AI deepfake changed the outcome of a US midterm race2%
2026-11-30METR publishes an independent review of at least one lab's test-environment fixes (Anthropic, Google, Meta or the UK AISI) by Nov 3030%
2026-11-30Korean police or regulators publicly name the operator behind the ARTEX bank intrusions by Nov 3025%

Source: Warning Shots call sheet (forecast/), odds set before each date; misses stay on the record. As of Oct 29, 2026. Every mark is computed from the data at build time, never typed in.

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